Which country will be the first state, where the new President of Uzbekistan will conduct his first visit?
December 5. 2016 considered a new page of Uzbekistan’s history and a day for the second newly elected president of Uzbekistan as day when he ultimately won the election with 88, 64 or roughly 15906724 voters and his opponents.[1]
Soon after inauguration the newly elected president, will face a serious cross-question that to be addressed quickly and correctly! National level question is the Second president’s first visit! This visit varies than other future visits of president. First of all, this visit to any state means for late state big respect and sign of warm relations. Therefore, State must to consider his visit very carefully inasmuch as it touches his future foreign relations and policies. In addition, we have to mention that first president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov made his first visit to India. Newertheless, at present we can not consider India as potential state from Uzbekistan’s perspective to conduct first visit. Since, the intention of Uzbekistan directs to another point.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev new elected President of Republic of Uzbekistan. sputniknews-uz
Highly possibility of first visit of Shavkat Mirsiyoyevs (new elected president) would be Russia Federation. Visiting funeral by prime minister Dmitriy Medvedev and after a few days visit Russian president Vladimir Putin to Uzbekistan with same aims acts as trigger scores to Russia
The visit to Russia has a several reasons to Uzbekistan:
- a) Russia is considered main strategic partner of Uzbekistan
- b) Main labor migrant work in Russia and enrich Uzbekistan’s economic position
- c) Economic relations still strong with each other
- d) Uzbekistan is needed to exit his isolation policy in order to have economical bum
- e) Russia poses first place in share of total CIS GDP which make Uzbekistan consider him as economical powerful state.
For Russia
- a) Russia sees in face of Uzbekistan a strong state in Central Asia. During USSSR, Tashkent was the capital of Central Asia.
- b) The population of Uzbekistan is more than half of Central Asian States population, which means Uzbekistan obtains big human labor capability.
- c) Geopolitical location of Uzbekistan plays key role and it is single state, which has borders to all the other countriesofthe region.
Above alluded facts may play a crucial role to plan Uzbekistan Foreign policy to chose Russia as place to first visit.
On the right Vladimir Putin and on the left Shavkat Mirziyoyev. ru.sputniknews-uz.com
China is second state on the list
Some scholars consider China as a great and new arising world power, which may easily get chance to whip away the first visit of President of Uzbekistan from other contenders. The last twenty year passed for China to bind closer relations with Uzbekistan and the with whole region of Central Asia.
- a) Uzbekistan was among the first to express its support for China’s calls for the global Silk Road initiative “Belt and Road.
- b) Economical ties much more stronger than any other state.(600 active industries )
- c) China didnot yet show his political ambition in the region in the comparison to other above mentioned states.
- d) Uzbekistan very active in SCO where China plays a key role.
- e)China and Uzbekistan signed a declaration on strategic partnership.
Pipelines of natural gas from Central Asia to China http://www.naturalgasasia.com
China has different attitude when it conducts its foreign relations with others states. In comparison with western countries China never intervene political life of states and never oppose internal systems operation of foreign states, even sometimes it powers them. Idea not intervene and only business (economical) policies of “under heaven” state fits all Central Asian countries, including Uzbekistan. In addition, China has great investment potential in contrasting Russia that makes it much more attractive.
Based on what has been said above, we can conclude that China is next potential state where first visit can be carried out.
Kazakstan as next state
Next state that can carry out first visit by second President of Uzbekistan is Republic of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan plays one the crucial role as Uzbekistan in Central Asian Region. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan signed strategic partnership while with other region states it has bilateral relations. The foreign policies of two states on regulation of Central Asian River issues and policy of restoration of Aral Sea match in the same way, which is crucial for Uzbekistan, since it considers water policy as national security level. However, we do not have leave behind us that first visit is very precious for Uzbekistan and it tries to use it more appropriately and rationally. Therefore, we put Kazakhstan in third place.
US as next state
Four place takes US as country where Uzbekistan’s president can take his first visit. After achieving independence and until Andijan events relations of Uzbekistan and US were very strong. Uzbekistan became a strategically partner to US and even provided US with military base K2 where US air forces made raids on Taliban-points. Nevertheless, US democratization policies towards Uzbekistan were too tough. Intervening internal policy of Uzbekistan did not meet warm welcome by state elite. On the other hand Uzbekistan had a plan of step by step implementing democratically reforms within its borders but US is always in hurry as they say usually “Right here Right now” that made pressure to much which later cause Andean event which brought withdrawing of air base troops from K2. By the way, elite of Uzbekistan see in the face of US turbulent and has fear to come closer with it. Geographical positions of two states makes them less economical bounded and they do not have much connection in this sphere in comparison, which above mention countries. In conclusion, US has a little opportunity to get first visit of second president of Uzbekistan. Thus, it takes fourst place on the list.
Turkey as next state
Turkey was one of the first state that recognized Uzbekistan’s independence from Soviet Union. Next fifteen years of relationships were closer than any state of the region. Turkey had invested to Uzbekistan economy large amount of money which flourished it’s GDP. The relationships were from perspective political, economic, and cultural and education levels. However, finding out by Uzbekistan National Security Service the Turkey’s powering opposition and accepting fugitives who crimed Andijan unrest and violations put states relations in strain and iced entirely.
On the right Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on the left www.tccb.gov.tr
From our perspective state visit of Turkey President of Endogan to Uzbekistan of in 18 November of this year to honor the first president’s graves and inviting Shavkat Mirziyoyev to make his first visit after winning presidential election does not mean for Uzbek government to take actions since Elites of Uzbekistan have not forgotten Turkish actions a decade ago.
Turkmenistan as next state
One the last country that may be place for first visit of President of Uzbekistan is Republic of Turkmenistan. In last decade, Uzbekistan has been seeing a regional ally in the face of this state and a strong partner in the region. Among five states of the region, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan policies are similar and support each other on region policy. States signed an agreement on the ways of development of economic and humanitarian cooperation between the two countries. In addition one of the most important topic for Uzbekistan, where Turkmenistan has the same interest and position which empower Uzbekistan water interest.
Discussing the problem of conflicts around water resources in Central Asia, although, as usual, the details of these negotiations is not reported. It is noted that in general, the states relationships in an elevated atmosphere. President of Turkmenistan Berdimuhamedov prefers to defuse tensions in the bilateral relationship through personal diplomacy adn coming to Tashkent. The annual meetings between heads of state indicate a higher level of interaction under the present leadership of Turkmenistan. Nevertheless, we do not have to forget that for Uzbekistan President the first visit is unique chance to use it efficiently in case if not he elected to second time. Subsequently, Turkmenistan is candidate for having opportunity to accept first visit of second president of Uzbekistan but again this window opportunity is too narrow.
To allude, what we said above that we made a rational and pragmatic approach from the Uzbekistan perspective to outside world. Our research on which state became first place to visit will be fulfilled exactly but we consider that those states are the one, where Uzbekistan tries to find a partner with new president. As, it happened with Brexit or US presidential elections that no one expected results happened and in our case is not prevented from Force majeure situations that changes everything but in stable policy Uzbekistan will chose one of them and choice will be consistent as we pointed out alternately above.
- http://www.elections.uz 05.12.2016
- E.F. Troiskiy “Uzbekistan’s Foreign Policy in 2004-2007, From Strategic Partnership with Us to Alliance with Russia” 2008
- Meshcheryakov Constantine “Russian-Uzbek bilateral relations in the years 1991-2007 key trends and development issues” Saint Petersburg State University . 2007
- http://www.tccb.gov.tr
- http://russian.eurasianet.org
- http://foreignpolicy.com
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