Central Asia from peace to threat of war from water regulation perspectives.
By Ganiev Alisher
Region Central Asia stretches from the Caspian Sea in the west to the border with the western part of China to the east; in the north region borders with Russia; on the south by Iran, Afghanistan and China. The region occupied by five sovereign independent republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan.[1] They have total 1.55 million km2 of territory considering all five countries of the region. The main water source of the region is considered two rivers, which flow through those states and at the same time connect them in water sector.
The main rivers of central Asia such as Amudarya and Sirdarya flows through states of the region. In addition, Amu Darya also flows through Afghanistan but Afghanistan is considered as part of south Asia and in water allocation Afghanistan’s policy is passive with almost zero. Nevertheless, experts mention that with rise of Afghan state the water policy of the country will gradually change.
After independence, all sovereign states were faced with threats and challenges on water regulation, which brought potential strain into political, economic, social, and ethnic life, which demanded the revision of development strategy for the neighbor countries.[2]
The before new millennium, especially USSR period the water allocations among states were strictly regulated in Moscow as well as any other issue within Soviet Union.
In USSR method of dealing of water allocation among states was highly easy. Upstream countries such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan used to provide water in summer season to downstream states such as Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to agricultural purposes while downstream states had to provide upper stream states with carbon, oil and gas during winter terms, in order upper stream states do not use and release water in damps for making electricity.
XX centuries 80th of came very drought in summer seasons for USSR states of Central Asia. In addition, there were no elements of regulating water managements within two major rivers of central Asian states. Old system of water regulation, which is being used centuries of states became useless and even began to harm to downstream countries during the spring floods and agro industrial seasons. Therefore, the Ministry of Reclamation and Water Resources of the former USSR formed two basin water organizations — BWMO “Amudarya” and BWMO “Syrdarya” [3]. One the priority of this organization was to take a full responsibility on water regulation and allocations. BWMOs were guarantee that downstream states would take their part of water in any time of the year and especially in summer seasons. In that period, BWMO made some new changes on regulation of two rivers. It put his mandate on quoting of waters by states, which means that each state has it’s own limit of using water of river basin with the prerogative to the downstates.
Under jurisdiction of the USSSR’s Protocol on water allocations No. 413 of 1984 in a normal year, 75% of the annual taking from the reservoir/dams accounted for summer season(especially water went to downstream states and discharges in winter could not exceed the remaining that is for hydropower stations 25%.[4]
Following crash of Soviet Union lead for water crisis within the region. States become an independent not only on their internal and external policies but they began to regularize their water resources by themselves too, which made causes to some other neighboring states interest in water sector.
Upper stream states such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan by their geographically location on mountainous parts of the region together produce 77% of whole region fresh water. Other percentage of water comes of partially Afghanistan Kazakhstan Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan of Aral Sea Basin. Almost eighty per cent of water has been used by downstream states and the rest is given under control of upper stream.
The Central Asia is one of the largest irrigated areas of the entire planet. Region has nearly eight million hectares of developed and 32 million ha of utilizable irrigated area. Irrigated agriculture are biggest water user and it consumes from 85 to 95% of available water resources of the region.[5]
In world practice, most part enjoyment of water belonged to downstream states since again geographical location of downstream states gives them priority to use water for agricultural ways since the natural landscape is suitable while upper states used only for commercial purposes. Evolution of technologies on using water in hydrology purposes let upper state countries potential opportunity to utilize water in many directions.
In the new millennium, states of Central Asia faced crisis on water regulation of tran border rivers sector. Why do we call this crisis? Because of old water measure and allocations began to erode his actual strength and upper states start off to show their desire to construct new hydropower stations (Kyrgyzstan: Kambarota 1, Kambarota 2, Tadjikistan: Sangtuda and Rogun would be the highest dams in the world history if it is built). Idea to build those stations was response to termination of carbohydrate exchange from downstream countries in order to ensure energy security in winter and at all. Nevertheless, downstream states oppose and pointing on facts that building of those “great” dams can cause to ecological crisis, biodiversity and further complicate the situation in the Aral Sea, which is already disastrous. We may see that the role of resistance on building of dams of downstream states has huge potential and plays key part. In 2012, President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov threatened upper states saying that constructing huge water dams may cause a war among states and urge them to negotiate/ take permission with the all other basin states of the region.
Some scholars such as Vladimir Fedorenko, Daene C. Mckinney, Lucy Jenkins-Young, Tatjana Lipiäinen and Jeremy Smith who are involved on empirical and theoretical research on this issue in order to find resolutions on water regulation which can come around the disputed situation. The interesting point is that almost all in depth studies of the problem of the trans-border issues of the region has been conducted far away from the it’s place. However, their apartness from the place did not make any difference and their works are considered one the most rational and pragmatic approaches to the water regulation crisis.
Interstate organizations plays a key role in order to originate and share information on water. Right after independence, the ministers of water management of five central Asian States signed an Almaty agreement, which was foundation on Interstate Commission on Water Coordination (ICWC) and International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). The aims of those organizations was to maintain cooperation in joint management, use and protection of interstate sources of water resources. Later was established Interstate Council for Aral Sea Basin ICAB. The dedication of those international organizations were cooperation on water and environmental management of water resources in the Aral Sea Basin.
On the other hand, civil society of central Asian States very ambiguous. Unless there is lack or shortage of water, civil society never makes moves towards solution. However, in among regions states Uzbekistan’s farmer society has a powerful leverage of pressure on the authorities and to whole government. Farmer society urges to government to handle water allocation or implementation of the state plan for harvesting will not be achieved. In difference, Kazakhstan has powerful public industrial organizations, which active on counseling water regulation policy, since water allocation put them in very sensitive and vulnerable position.
International organizations such as United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNICE), United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), United Nations Development Program (UNDP), United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeitcivil (GIZ) The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), World Bank assist to government and civil society to resolve water problems through intertwining with them during the processes. We notice that international organization have a key role in stability in the region especially on water regulation processes. Through observing, we came into conclusion that international organizations has credit to freeze the tense context and call the sides to negotiation table which crucial important in peacefully resolving water crisis bundle.
[1] Encyclopedia Britannica: Central Asia // http://www.britannica.com/place/Central-Asia.
[2] Baker James A. Institute for Public Policy of Rice University. Central Asia Confronting Independence.
[3] Beatrice Mosello “Water in Central Asia: A Prospect of Conflict or Cooperation?” The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. Geneva 2002
[4] The World Bank: “Water energy nexus in central Asia improving regional cooperation in the Syr darya basin”
Europe and Central Asia Region Washington DC 2004
[5]Iskandar Abdullaev Water management policies of central Asian countries: integration or disintegration?
Politics/Conflictology/International Relation 