In this public disputed, we are going to assess in terms of Carpenter’s social conflict and especially from “Spiral of Unmanaged Conflict” point of view. I fully agree that public dispute is dynamic and his opinion when he was against ripening of conflict or dispute as some others conflict mediators believes. He gave an idea that conflict is like sick person with cough if you let him ripe than soon he will get tubercles. It is the same situation with conflicts/disputes if you let him ripe than it will became national catastrophe. First let’s get touch close with dispute and later I shall try to construct it with Spiral form of conflict.

theconversation.com/death.
The roots of current conflict belongs to 1950’s and it covers not completely Nigerian state but only some ethnic communities who inhabit southwest part of state, especially Niger delta. In 1950, international companies such as Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron Corporation found the enormous oil stocks in the field of Niger’s delta. In the beginning year’s international company began drilling from 10000 barrels a day to 2.5ml in 2008. Until the 1990’s the communities around oil stock were patient and showed only disaffection of natural crisis. In the early 1990, some minor ethnic group in the Niger delta began to protest, saying that they have been exploited, and getting nothing.
At the beginning, the number of disaffected ethnic groups were significantly low. They were Ogoni and Ijaw. In the 1990, the Ogony ethnic group was one the firs protested group, which demanded international oil corporation to leave their land, since they are harming natural ecosystem of Ogonyland it is name which given by ethnic group to their land. In the begging of Ogony protests as we seen in Carpenters article that in social disputes there is place for someone from group who is more potential and who can help and achieve to this group to their point. Therefore, comes person who is name Ken Saro is the leader of (MOSOP). However, in establishing period of this movement suddenly there was intervention by military groups, which later discovered that they murdered four group leaders of MOSOP movement. After that military incident, ethnic group blamed International Oil Corporations in use militants that would scare participants of movements and Government for supporting International Oil Corporations in such action.
Furthermore, the government accused Ken Saro as leader of militants group in order to take full management to MOSOP. Later, he was convicted and persecuted by hanging. In this term, conflict pie became bigger since international community responded first time and showed it’s desperation on Nigerian government since they are playing in the hands of international oil corporations. Reaction on that international community put sanctions on Nigerian Economy (the most interesting part was sanctions on economy except oil export).
In 2000, the ethnic group with help of Nigerian Government established Nigerian Delta Development Commission, which by the way has to work with victims of disputes. Here, we can see that Nigerian Government first time goes to negotiation with ethnic group and allowing them establish NDDC. As, Carpenters idea that in public dispute in comparison with labor dispute or family dispute the number of parts can easy grow or down. In this dispute, we may find out that each time the dispute goes the number of parts are multiplying. At last time, new parties were international community with face The Commonwealth of Nations, United States, Platform London, Friends of the Earth Netherlands and Amnesty International. Thus we can see that with development and continuation of the conflict the new stakeholders joined and conflict pie becoming bigger and bigger.
www.bbc.com/news/world-africa
Nevertheless, the role and place of Nigerian Delta Development Commission in solving didn’t meet the ethnic group expectations. Later, in 2004, some prominent people of the ethnic group became more active against oil corporations drilling and they began to ask them to share with benefits of oil drilling. Besides, those people claim that Niger deltas oil belongs to the ethnic group who lives here but no whole nation of Nigeria. Therefore, they began to shape another formation of armed groups in Niger Delta, which brought scare international oil corporations operations and forced the government to accept their legality and responsibility of ethnic groups in the region.
Point on Communication: We think that two sides stopped in communication and didn’t recognize opposite sides. Therefore, opposite sides became quasyindependent in their policy. From the government perspective those militants group had been accepted as terrorist group as they were blowing oil pipelines or bunkering on barge. State used it’s force to take over of this group and bring peace to Niger Delta. However, in military operations, the number of civilian victims were ten times more than militants or governments side. On the other hand, militants uses piracy and kidnapping as an instrument to getting to their points.
Government estimated the situation and declare in 2009 Presidential amnesties program to those who were accused by government in their actions. This process brought sides to negotiations table to discuss the current point of views of two sides. Exactly, this Presidential amnesty program made much more peace development than other actions that were done before. This program didn’t touch the root of conflict but made conflict to go to dormant process.
In 2014-2016 natural disaster of Niger delta became world popular and got international attention. It was one the reason to wake conflict from it’s dormant stage. International community show their sympathy on natural crisis in delta region. In this year there is another ethnic militant group were shaping and now there are much more aggressive than before groups. Government uses it’s full power such as using military, troops, aerial bombardment. In addition, there third parties, except international oil companies, US which US helps to Nigerian troops in military training. So, we can understand that loss of connections and no negotiations can make from small conflict to catastrophe which happened with Nigeria.
| 2016 Establishing Joint Military Force against Government and Oil companies | Using military, troops, aerial bombardment. | conflict went beyond protest and became irritable |
Conflict faced it’s peak of crisis |
Back to fear of physical destruction | US helps to Nigerian troops in military training. Nigerian government got international credit with fight against JMF. |
| 2014 Ethnic protest on natural crisis which brought oil drilling and economical undevelopment of Niger delta | Actions to clean oil spills (by the way, oil spills were 1.5 million tons of oil was discharged by companies to Niger delta) |
new protests in the field of economic and the remaining charge of international corporations for being retarted |
Ethnic group aware natural catastrophe in Niger delta and making know to the World |
National desperation on Nature |
Platform London,
Friends of the Earth Netherlands and Amnesty International insist Shell to clean oil spills |
| 2009 Some ethnic group surrendered themselves for amnesty(PAP) |
Presidential amnesty program |
Conflict goes to dormant process |
That is the one of the biggest harm to national economy since it has Dutch disease |
Supposing the end of disputes |
Support to the “Presidential amnesty program” from “International amnesty organizations”. |
| 2006 Piracy and Kidnapping | Military crackdown | Sense of crisis physical destruction | Nigerian oil crisis (because of threats to oil corporations). | Fear Piracy and kidnapping (Mostly it is about employers of oil companies and government’s soldiers). | Convene for negotiations two sides. |
| 2003-2004 Formation armed groups in Niger Delta | Warning/end of negotiations |
Communication stops |
From protests turns to militarizing | Back to fear of physical destruction | No responses |
| 2000 Creation Niger Delta Development Commission | Negotiations | Conflicts goes outside of origin | Issues multiply
Now not only but ecology added |
Getting support and hope from Niger Delta Development Commission |
Support Niger Delta Development Commission |
| 1998-1999 Formation Ijaw Youth Council | Using hard power to suppress ethnical movement | Communications going |
Divides into sides |
fear of death
hardening of positioning |
The Commonwealth of Nations
The United States United Kingdom and EU |
| 1990 Ogony and Ijaw ethnic group’s protest | Working only with each other
|
Defending positions |
Ethnic group aware of going on disputes |
Increased of feeling |
No responses |
| 1950-1990 antipathy of ethnic groups | No response | Sides formation | Evolution of situation | Neutral | No responses |
|
Ethnic group activities
|
Nigerian Government and International oil corporations | INTENSITY
Conflict spiral
|
Evolution of Issues | Psychological Effect on sides | International Community |
