Si vis pacem, para bellum (If you want peace – prepare for war)
Publius Flavius
Intricate relationship between Russia and Turkey
Relations of Turkey with Russia were always overcomplexed. The uprising of Russian Empire came with ending of Ottoman Empire. Naturally, one cannot enlarge it’s Empire unless it digest the other sides parts. Over time, the interest of the empires clashed and become more conflict genius. Noticeable, from the fact that Russian Empire and Turkey have declared war more the 12 times[1].
Fighting in the Turkish Russo War. Pavel Kovalevsky // factsandarts.com
There is a rumor that one of extraordinary and plenipotentiary ambassadors of Saar Russia urged with war to Turkey Sultan with words “If you want peace – prepare for war”, which later turned into real war among imperials. Therefore, relations usually Russia with Turkey were flammable even in cold war, since Turkey had and has US military airbase in Incirlik[2]. For Turkey, Russia is adversary in the region since whatever Turkey delivers in it’s foreign policy within the region it forthwith touch the Russian interest.
The Russian importance in the region is highly sensible and counted one of the big obstacle for the Turkey’s policy in the area.[3] On accounting on that, there were and are no common policies of both states to conduct course within the region but seeing in each other inverses.
Undertaking the Arab spring has one of the crucial importance to the Turkey and Russian relationship. It awakened a new level of policy conducting by states to the Syrian state from different perspective. One the main and the last distinction was that Turkey and Russia maintaining different interest group in Syria who are conduction military operation to each other.
Downing the Russian Bomber Su 24 by Turkish fighter jet a year ago was one the brightest incidents that occur between states over hundred year. Which made the almost ill relationship to the worst one. Incident happened over the border of Syria and Turkey where Russian Air Force assisting to pro Syrian Government military. Russian states reacted earnestly and marked case as “knife in the back”. Processes ended with icening and imposing sanctions to Turkey by Russia.[4] Turkey government reaction was sharp on issue that it’s territorial integrity will be defended in any cases with any cost.
Only taking place undreamed and thriveless military coup in Turkey in middle June 2016, which apparently by alleged supporters of Fethullah Gulen who in turn was backed by US. Their aim was to change the newly elected president of Turkey. That unplanned crisis change the Turkey and Russian relation turned from the negative to neutral. Right after failed military coup, the Turkey government took serious measurement against military who had hands in coup. Turkey was heavily criticized by west, which made to Turkey government to face to Russia and try to find support that was unpredictable step before the coup. After a few days later of the coup the Tayyip Erdogan visited Russia in order to be backed in his policy when he turned back to west.
ria.ru
Recently, in 19 December 2016 serious case of murder of Russian extraordinary and plenipotentiary Ambassador Andrew Karlov by police agent who was after military coup suspended and fired from the police. Turkey state counts this as terrorist attack rather than arranged murder by government. Murdering fabricated a new stage in relations of two states. Right now, Russia is occupied with a farewell ceremony. Therefore, today’s situation is highly complex and the future policies of states need to be considered very carefully in each step, since as we alluded that the relations were always flammable.
Outcomes to Russia relations with Turkey:
- Murder of Russian extraordinary and plenipotentiary Ambassador Andrew Karlov can be paraphrased as war against terrorism and make relationship of two state even closer to the way to fight with terrorism (most pragmatic approaches).
- Murder of Russian extraordinary and plenipotentiary Ambassador Andrew Karlov can be taken very serious by Russia which can put sanctions package against Turkey ( the least probably not rational).
- Russia will keep status quo (Russia will continue the level of relationships with Turkey as before the murdering Andrew Karlov).
Bibliography:
[1] Russian-Turkish War – Encyclopedia Articles “Krugosvet”
[2] http://www.incirlik.af.mil
[3] Roberts, Geoffrey (2011).Molotov: Stalin’s Cold Warrior. Potomac Books.
Politics/Conflictology/International Relation 